Publications
The following journal articles are based on the Thembisa model:
- Bansi-Matharu L., Moolla H., Citron D.T., Stover J., Pickles M., Martin-Hughes R., Boily M.C., Nyirenda R., Mudimu E., ten Brink D., Johnson L.F., Mugurungi O., Cambiano V., Dimitrov D., Smith J., Glaubius R., Taramusi I., Mpofu A., Phillips A. and Bershteyn A. (2025) Gaps in the HIV treatment cascade in Africa – where are HIV transmissions coming from? A model comparison study. Lancet Global Health. [In press]
- Leong T., Nel J., Jamieson L., Osih R., Dawood H., Subedar H., McCaul M., Johnson L.F. and Cohen K. (2024) A review and economic analysis of the dapivirine vaginal ring as HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for women, to inform South African public-sector guidelines. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 97(3): 261 – 272
- Rautenbach S.P., Whittles L.K., Meyer-Rath G., Jamieson L., Chidarikire T., Johnson L.F. and Imai-Eaton J.W. (2024) Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and long-term consequences of reductions in general HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 9: e218 - e230
- Jacob N., Rice B., Heekes A., Johnson L.F., Brinkmann S., Kufa T. and Boulle A. (2024) Can routine antenatal data be used to assess HIV antiretroviral therapy coverage among pregnant women? Evaluating the validity of different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa. PLoS One. 19(4): e0291844
- Johnson L.F., Myer L., Jamieson L., Meyer-Rath G., Delany-Moretlwe S. and Joseph Davey D. (2024) The potential benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir in pregnant and breastfeeding women and their infants: a modelling study. AIDS. 38: 589 – 594
- Korenromp E.L., Sabin K., Stover J., Brown T., Johnson L.F., Martin-Hughes T., ten Brink D., Teng Y., Stevens O., Silhol R., Arias-Garcia S., Kimani J., Glaubius R., Vickerman P. and Mahy M. (2024) New HIV infections among key populations and their partners in 2010 and 2022, by world region: a multisources estimation. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 95 (Suppl 1): S34 – S45.
- Silhol R., Anderson R.L., Stevens O., Stannah J., Booton R.D., Baral S., Dimitrov D., Mitchell K., Donnell D., Bershteyn A., Brown T., Kelly S.L., Kim H.Y., Johnson L.F., Maheu-Giroux M., Martin-Hughes R., Mishra S., Peerapatanapokin W., Stone J., Stover J., Teng Y., Vickerman P., Arias Garcia S., Korenromp E., Imai-Eaton J.W. and Boily M.C. (2024) Measuring HIV acquisitions among partners of key populations: estimates from HIV transmission dynamic models. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 95 (Suppl 1): S59 – S69.
- Stevens O., Anderson R., Stover J., Teng Y., Stannah J., Silhol R., Jones H., Booton R.D., Martin-Hughes R., Johnson L., Maheu-Giroux M., Mishra S., Stone J., Bershteyn A., Ki H.Y., Sabin K., Mitchell K.M., Dimitrov D., Baral S., Donnell D., Korenromp E., Rice B., Hargreaves J.R., Vickerman P., Boily M.C. and Imai-Eaton J.W. (2024) Comparison of empirically derived and model-based estimates of key population HIV incidence and the distribution of new infections by population group in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 95 (Suppl 1): S47 – S58.
- Moolla H., Phillips A., ten Brink D., Mudimu E., Stover J., Bansi-Matharu L., Martin-Hughes R., Wulan N., Cambiano V., Smith J., Bershteyn A., Meyer-Rath G., Jamieson L. and Johnson L.F. (2023) A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study. BMC Public Health. 23: 2119
- Haeri Mazanderani A.F., Murray T.Y., Johnson L.F., Ntloana M., Silere-Maqetseba T., Guo S. and Sherman G.G. (2023) Eliminating vertical transmission of HIV in South Africa: establishing a baseline for the Global Alliance to end AIDS in children. Diagnostics. 13: 2563
- Kubjane M., Cornell M., Osman M., Boulle A. and Johnson L.F. (2023) Drivers of sex differences in the South African adult tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends, 1990-2019. Scientific Reports. 13: 9487
- Bidzha M.L., Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E., Ngepah N. and Greyling T. (2023) The impact of child mortality on fertility in South Africa: Do child support grants and antiretroviral treatment matter? PLoS One. 18(4): e0284032
- Bansi-Matharu L., Mudimu E., Martin-Hughes R., Hamilton M., Johnson L., ten Brink D., Stover J., Meyer-Rath G., Kelly S.L., Jamieson L., Cambiano V., Jahn A., Cowan F.M., Mangenah C., Mavhu W., Chidarikire T., Toledo C., Revill P., Sundaram M., Hatzold K., Yansaneh A., Apollo T., Kalua T., Mugurungi O., Kiggundu V., Zhang S., Nyirenda R., Phillips A., Kripke K. and Bershteyn A. (2023) Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models. Lancet Global Health. 11(2): e244 – e255
- Jamieson L., Johnson L.F., Nichols B.E., Delany-Moretlwe S., Hosseinipour M.C., Russell C. and Meyer-Rath G. (2022) Relative cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable cabotegravir versus oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa based on the HPTN 083 and 084 trials: a modelled economic evaluation and threshold analysis. Lancet HIV. 9: e857 – e867
- Kubjane M., Osman M., Boulle A. and Johnson L.F. (2022) The impact of HIV and tuberculosis interventions on South African adult tuberculosis trends, 1990-2019: a mathematical modelling analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 122: 811 - 819
- Johnson L.F., Meyer-Rath G., Dorrington R.E., Puren A., Seatlhodi T., Zuma K. and Feizzadeh A. (2022) The effect of HIV programs in South Africa on national HIV incidence trends, 2000-2019. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 90: 115 - 123
- Jamieson L., Serenata C., Makhubele L., Sokhela S., Mashabane N., Akpomiemie G., Johnson L.F., Venter W.D.F. and Meyer-Rath G. (2021) Cost and cost-effectiveness of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral regimens: An economic evaluation of a clinical trial. AIDS. 35 (Suppl 2): S173 – S182
- Jamieson L., Johnson L.F., Matsimela K., Sande L.A., d’Elbée M., Majam M., Johnson C., Chidarikire T., Hatzold K., Terris-Prestholt F., Nichols B. and Meyer-Rath G. (2021) The cost-effectiveness and optimal configuration of HIV self-test distribution in South Africa: A model analysis. BMJ Global Health. 6 (Suppl 4): e005598
- van Schalkwyk C., Dorrington R.E., Seatlhodi T., Velasquez C., Feizzadeh A. and Johnson L.F. (2021) Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts. Scientific Reports. 11: 5652
- Pillay Y. and Johnson L.F. (2021) World AIDS Day 2020: reflections on global and South African progress and continuing challenges. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine. 22(1): a1205
- Korenromp E.L., Bershteyn A., Mudimu E., Weiner R., Bonecwe C., Loykissoonlal D., Manuhwa C., Pretorius C., Teng Y., Stover J. and Johnson L.F. (2021) The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models. Gates Open Research. 5: 15
- Johnson L.F., Kubjane M. and Eaton J.W. (2020) Challenges in estimating HIV prevalence trends and geographical variation in HIV prevalence using antenatal data: insights from mathematical modelling. PLoS One. 15(11): e0242595
- Johnson L.F., Patrick M., Stephen C., Patten G., Dorrington R.E., Maskew M., Jamieson L. and Davies M.A. (2020) Steep declines in pediatric AIDS mortality in South Africa, despite poor progress towards pediatric diagnosis and treatment targets. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. 39 (9): 843 - 848
- Jamieson L., Gomez G.B., Rebe K., Brown B., Subedar H., Jenkins S., Shoko N., Bekker L.G., Johnson L.F. and Meyer-Rath G. (2020) The impact of self-selection based on HIV risk on the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa. AIDS. 34 (6): 883 – 891
- Slogrove A.L., Johnson L.F. and Powis K.M. (2019) Population-level mortality associated with HIV exposure in HIV-uninfected infants in Botswana and South Africa: a model-based evaluation. Journal of Tropical Pediatrics. 65(4): 373 – 379
- Joseph Davey D., Bekker L.G., Gomba Y., Coates T., Myer L. and Johnson L.F. (2019) Modelling the potential impact of providing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and breastfeeding women in South Africa. AIDS. 33: 1391 – 1395
- Bekker L.G., Alleyne G., Baral S.D., et al. (2018) Advancing global health and strengthening the HIV response in the era of the Sustainable Development Goals: the International AIDS Society-Lancet Commission. Lancet. 392: 312 – 358
- Johnson L.F., May M.T., Dorrington R.E., Cornell M., Boulle A., Egger M. and Davies M.A. (2017) Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study. PLoS Medicine. 14(12): e1002468.
- Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E. and Moolla H. (2017) HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: a model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine. 18(1): a695
- Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E. and Moolla H. (2017) Progress towards the 2020 targets for HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment in South Africa. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine. 18(1): a694
- Chiu C., Johnson L.F., Jamieson L., Larson B.A. and Meyer-Rath G. (2017) Designing an optimal HIV programme for South Africa: Does the optimal package change when diminishing returns are considered? BMC Public Health. 17: 143
- Johnson L.F., Chiu C., Myer L., Davies M.A., Dorrington R.E., Bekker L.G., Boulle A. and Meyer-Rath G. (2016) Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis. Global Health Action. 9: 30314
- Johnson L.F., Rehle T.M., Jooste S. and Bekker L.G. (2015) Rates of HIV testing and diagnosis in South Africa, 2002-2012: successes and challenges. AIDS. 29: 1401 – 1409
- Rehle T., Johnson L., Hallett T., Mahy M., Kim A., Odido H., Onoya D., Jooste S., Shisana O., Puren A., Parekh B. and Stover J. (2015) A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods. PLoS One. 10(7): e0133255
- Bekker L.G., Johnson L., Cowan F., Overs C., Besada D., Hillier S. and Cates W. (2015) Combination HIV prevention for female sex workers: what is the evidence? Lancet. 385(9962): 72 – 87
In addition, a number of working papers have been published, which provide more detailed technical descriptions of the model: