Publications
The following journal articles are based on the Thembisa model:
- Johnson L.F., Patrick M., Stephen C., Patten G., Dorrington R.E., Maskew M., Jamieson L. and Davies M.A. (2020) Steep declines in pediatric AIDS mortality in South Africa, despite poor progress towards pediatric diagnosis and treatment targets. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. [In press]
- Jamieson L., Gomez G.B., Rebe K., Brown B., Subedar H., Jenkins S., Shoko N., Bekker L.G., Johnson L.F. and Meyer-Rath G. (2020) The impact of self-selection based on HIV risk on the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa. AIDS. 34 (6): 883 – 891
- Slogrove A.L., Johnson L.F. and Powis K.M. (2019) Population-level mortality associated with HIV exposure in HIV-uninfected infants in Botswana and South Africa: a model-based evaluation. Journal of Tropical Pediatrics. 65(4): 373 – 379
- Joseph Davey D., Bekker L.G., Gomba Y., Coates T., Myer L. and Johnson L.F. (2019) Modelling the potential impact of providing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and breastfeeding women in South Africa. AIDS. 33: 1391 – 1395
- Bekker L.G., Alleyne G., Baral S.D., et al. (2018) Advancing global health and strengthening the HIV response in the era of the Sustainable Development Goals: the International AIDS Society-Lancet Commission. Lancet. 392: 312 – 358
- Johnson L.F., May M.T., Dorrington R.E., Cornell M., Boulle A., Egger M. and Davies M.A. (2017) Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study. PLoS Medicine. 14(12): e1002468.
- Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E. and Moolla H. (2017) HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: a model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine. 18(1): a695
- Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E. and Moolla H. (2017) Progress towards the 2020 targets for HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment in South Africa. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine. 18(1): a694
- Chiu C., Johnson L.F., Jamieson L., Larson B.A. and Meyer-Rath G. (2017) Designing an optimal HIV programme for South Africa: Does the optimal package change when diminishing returns are considered? BMC Public Health. 17: 143
- Johnson L.F., Chiu C., Myer L., Davies M.A., Dorrington R.E., Bekker L.G., Boulle A. and Meyer-Rath G. (2016) Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis. Global Health Action. 9: 30314
- Johnson L.F., Rehle T.M., Jooste S. and Bekker L.G. (2015) Rates of HIV testing and diagnosis in South Africa, 2002-2012: successes and challenges. AIDS. 29: 1401 – 1409
- Rehle T., Johnson L., Hallett T., Mahy M., Kim A., Odido H., Onoya D., Jooste S., Shisana O., Puren A., Parekh B. and Stover J. (2015) A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods. PLoS One. 10(7): e0133255
- Bekker L.G., Johnson L., Cowan F., Overs C., Besada D., Hillier S. and Cates W. (2015) Combination HIV prevention for female sex workers: what is the evidence? Lancet. 385(9962): 72 – 87
In addition, a number of working papers have been published, which provide more detailed technical descriptions of the model: